**Traders assign a 73.5% probability to "No" because the Iran-Oman agreement on Hormuz shipping routes has advanced without triggering the lifting of the US naval blockade or full reopening of the strait.** As of early October 2026, Iran and Oman finalized coordinates for designated safe two-way routes and mechanisms for notifying the relevant international maritime body, building on their August phased framework for a temporary navigational corridor, mine clearance, and traffic management. Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have repeatedly clarified that this understanding does not constitute reopening or end restrictions; it outlines arrangements that would apply if broader conditions are met. The US blockade of Iranian ports—reimposed after earlier ceasefires collapsed—remains active, with ongoing enforcement, sanctions on shadow fleet vessels, and reports of tanker attacks in the strait reaching weekly highs. Tehran continues to link any normalization of navigation to US fulfillment of prior commitments on sanctions relief and related issues under frameworks like the Islamabad memorandum, while tensions persist through threats to unauthorized routes and restricted commercial traffic (currently far below pre-crisis levels). These developments indicate the agreement can progress independently of immediate blockade relief, supporting trader expectations that the blockade will not be lifted first.