Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment represents an inalienable sovereign right continues to drive the 93.5% "No" odds on any agreement to end the activity by September 30. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's non-weapons commitment while deferring enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and verification to further talks, with no binding commitments reached. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected U.S. proposals for zero enrichment or extended moratoria, countering instead with offers of limited pauses or dilution under oversight. Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and unresolved IAEA safeguards issues have not altered these core positions, leaving the parties' red lines intact within the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$56,185 交易量
$56,185 交易量
2026-09-30
是
7% 概率
$56,185 交易量
$56,185 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment represents an inalienable sovereign right continues to drive the 93.5% "No" odds on any agreement to end the activity by September 30. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's non-weapons commitment while deferring enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and verification to further talks, with no binding commitments reached. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected U.S. proposals for zero enrichment or extended moratoria, countering instead with offers of limited pauses or dilution under oversight. Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and unresolved IAEA safeguards issues have not altered these core positions, leaving the parties' red lines intact within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$56,185结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment represents an inalienable sovereign right continues to drive the 93.5% "No" odds on any agreement to end the activity by September 30. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's non-weapons commitment while deferring enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and verification to further talks, with no binding commitments reached. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected U.S. proposals for zero enrichment or extended moratoria, countering instead with offers of limited pauses or dilution under oversight. Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and unresolved IAEA safeguards issues have not altered these core positions, leaving the parties' red lines intact within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$56,185结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment represents an inalienable sovereign right continues to drive the 93.5% "No" odds on any agreement to end the activity by September 30. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirmed Tehran's non-weapons commitment while deferring enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and verification to further talks, with no binding commitments reached. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected U.S. proposals for zero enrichment or extended moratoria, countering instead with offers of limited pauses or dilution under oversight. Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and unresolved IAEA safeguards issues have not altered these core positions, leaving the parties' red lines intact within the narrow resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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