Elevated Treasury yields near 5.3% and geopolitical tensions have tempered IPO velocity in recent weeks, pushing the Nasdaq IPO Pulse to a six-month low in September, yet U.S. issuers have already raised $146 billion year-to-date—surpassing 2021’s full-year total—driven by mega-deals including SpaceX. Strong equity risk appetite, AI infrastructure spending exceeding $777 billion in 2026, and a deep pipeline of filings support continued activity through year-end. Anthropic remains the key near-term catalyst with potential listing timing in late 2026, while OpenAI leans toward 2027. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on whether rate paths and sector momentum can sustain issuance before the 2027 threshold amid these crosscurrents.