President Donald Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act ahead of the November 2026 midterms, most recently in a late-September Time interview where he noted he has never used the 1807 law but “could” and that “a lot of people think I should use it sometimes.” Trader attention centers on his administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement, which has sparked protests and isolated violence involving federal agents in cities such as Minneapolis, alongside ongoing Republican concerns about election integrity. No invocation has occurred; the statute has not been used since 1992. Key variables include the scale of any pre-election unrest, legal challenges to troop deployments near polling places, and statements from military or administration officials. Midterm voting and related protests remain the nearest scheduled events that could alter probabilities.