President Donald Trump has not ruled out invoking the Insurrection Act ahead of the November 2026 midterms, citing potential civil disorder tied to immigration enforcement and unsubstantiated voter fraud concerns during a late September Time interview. Earlier episodes in Minneapolis and other cities saw threats of deployment amid protests against ICE operations, though no invocation occurred and federalized National Guard use faced court limits. The Joint Chiefs have stated there are no plans for military personnel at polling sites. Trader consensus on low odds for invocation by year-end reflects the absence of widespread unrest meeting statutory thresholds, institutional checks, and historical precedent limiting such actions to rare cases like the 1992 Los Angeles riots. Midterm results and any post-election disputes remain key variables that could shift probabilities.