**Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher faces Democrat Kaylee Peterson, independent Sarah Zabel, and Constitution Party candidate Brendan Gomez in Idaho’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026.** The district’s R+22 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball underpin trader expectations of a substantial Republican margin. Fulcher’s decisive May primary win and the absence of major late-cycle developments or competitive polling shifts have kept probabilities concentrated on 20–40 point Republican victories. Limited recent survey data and the district’s strong historical Republican performance reinforce this positioning, while the low probability assigned to a Democratic win reflects structural barriers and the independent candidate’s limited impact on the overall outcome. No major events in the final weeks have altered these dynamics.