Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily commercial transits averaging in the low single digits since early May amid naval restrictions and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers. This has kept weekly vessel counts firmly in the 40-59 range, reflecting a sharp contraction from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100 vessels per day and aligning with recent satellite and AIS data showing minimal recovery despite limited openings. Traders have priced in sustained low volumes as the baseline, supported by persistent blockades and rerouting incentives. A swift de-escalation or formal ceasefire easing naval enforcement could lift throughput above 60, though such developments remain contingent on diplomatic breakthroughs not yet materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-59 99.6%
60-79 <1%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
$931,906 交易量
$931,906 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
Yes
60-79
No
80+
No
40-59 99.6%
60-79 <1%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
$931,906 交易量
$931,906 交易量
2026-05-17
<20
$579,698 交易量
No
20-39
$97,312 交易量
No
40-59
$144,719 交易量
Yes
60-79
$70,867 交易量
No
80+
$39,310 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily commercial transits averaging in the low single digits since early May amid naval restrictions and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers. This has kept weekly vessel counts firmly in the 40-59 range, reflecting a sharp contraction from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100 vessels per day and aligning with recent satellite and AIS data showing minimal recovery despite limited openings. Traders have priced in sustained low volumes as the baseline, supported by persistent blockades and rerouting incentives. A swift de-escalation or formal ceasefire easing naval enforcement could lift throughput above 60, though such developments remain contingent on diplomatic breakthroughs not yet materialized.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$931,906结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
有争议
已提议结果: No
有争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily commercial transits averaging in the low single digits since early May amid naval restrictions and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers. This has kept weekly vessel counts firmly in the 40-59 range, reflecting a sharp contraction from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100 vessels per day and aligning with recent satellite and AIS data showing minimal recovery despite limited openings. Traders have priced in sustained low volumes as the baseline, supported by persistent blockades and rerouting incentives. A swift de-escalation or formal ceasefire easing naval enforcement could lift throughput above 60, though such developments remain contingent on diplomatic breakthroughs not yet materialized.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$931,906结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
有争议
已提议结果: No
有争议
最终结果: No
Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict continue to suppress maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily commercial transits averaging in the low single digits since early May amid naval restrictions and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers. This has kept weekly vessel counts firmly in the 40-59 range, reflecting a sharp contraction from pre-conflict averages exceeding 100 vessels per day and aligning with recent satellite and AIS data showing minimal recovery despite limited openings. Traders have priced in sustained low volumes as the baseline, supported by persistent blockades and rerouting incentives. A swift de-escalation or formal ceasefire easing naval enforcement could lift throughput above 60, though such developments remain contingent on diplomatic breakthroughs not yet materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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