Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于200-219 100.0%
少于180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220艘以上 <1%
$16,038 交易量
$16,038 交易量
2026-08-16
少于180
否
180-199
否
200-219
是
220艘以上
否
200-219 100.0%
少于180 <1%
180-199 <1%
220艘以上 <1%
$16,038 交易量
$16,038 交易量
2026-08-16
少于180
$7,062 交易量
否
180-199
$2,534 交易量
否
200-219
$2,064 交易量
是
220艘以上
$4,379 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$16,038结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$16,038结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels since late July 2026 have driven the sharp, sustained reduction in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 260–270 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350. Elevated war-risk premiums, selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent missile/drone positioning have compressed container, tanker, and dry-bulk flows while keeping daily averages in the low-to-mid 30s, aligning market-implied odds squarely on the 200–219 range. Trader consensus reflects this entrenched lower baseline supported by real capital at risk. A credible de-escalation—such as verifiable withdrawal of Houthi threats, renewed safe-passage agreements, or rapid diplomatic easing of Red Sea tensions—could lift volumes back toward historical norms and challenge the current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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