Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 交易量
$38,171 交易量
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 交易量
$38,171 交易量
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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