Arizona's nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid ahead of the November 2026 general election. Two Republican-held seats stand out as the main battlegrounds: the open AZ-1, vacated by retiring Rep. David Schweikert, and AZ-6, where incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Both races rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups following July primaries that set the general-election matchups, including Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the potential for one or two net gains in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts, where candidate fundraising, turnout patterns, and national midterm conditions could determine the final count. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus seats align with the limited number of competitive races and established partisan leans elsewhere.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5 60%
4 16.5%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 交易量
$16,098 交易量
2026-11-02
少于3个
<1%
3
7%
4
17%
5
60%
6
16%
7+
3%
5 60%
4 16.5%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 交易量
$16,098 交易量
2026-11-02
少于3个
$982 交易量
<1%
3
$6,115 交易量
7%
4
$2,458 交易量
17%
5
$4,189 交易量
60%
6
$1,531 交易量
16%
7+
$823 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid ahead of the November 2026 general election. Two Republican-held seats stand out as the main battlegrounds: the open AZ-1, vacated by retiring Rep. David Schweikert, and AZ-6, where incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Both races rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups following July primaries that set the general-election matchups, including Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the potential for one or two net gains in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts, where candidate fundraising, turnout patterns, and national midterm conditions could determine the final count. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus seats align with the limited number of competitive races and established partisan leans elsewhere.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
交易量
$16,098结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid ahead of the November 2026 general election. Two Republican-held seats stand out as the main battlegrounds: the open AZ-1, vacated by retiring Rep. David Schweikert, and AZ-6, where incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Both races rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups following July primaries that set the general-election matchups, including Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the potential for one or two net gains in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts, where candidate fundraising, turnout patterns, and national midterm conditions could determine the final count. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus seats align with the limited number of competitive races and established partisan leans elsewhere.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$16,098结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETArizona's nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid ahead of the November 2026 general election. Two Republican-held seats stand out as the main battlegrounds: the open AZ-1, vacated by retiring Rep. David Schweikert, and AZ-6, where incumbent Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Both races rate as toss-ups or near-toss-ups following July primaries that set the general-election matchups, including Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the potential for one or two net gains in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts, where candidate fundraising, turnout patterns, and national midterm conditions could determine the final count. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus seats align with the limited number of competitive races and established partisan leans elsewhere.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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