Rising 5-year Treasury yields in September 2026, trading near 5.06% by month-end after touching intra-month lows around 4.83%, reflect trader reassessment of inflation persistence and a hawkish Fed path. The September FOMC median projection signaled an additional 25 basis point hike by year-end, lifting the expected federal funds rate to 4.1%, while higher real rates and term premia added upward pressure amid robust growth and AI-driven borrowing demand. Recent economic data reinforced these dynamics, with yields climbing from earlier-month levels as markets priced reduced odds of near-term easing. Key remaining catalysts include final September labor and inflation releases, which could influence any last-minute yield dips before month-end resolution.