The by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has positioned Green Party leader Zack Polanski as a high-profile challenger in a constituency where his party took 10.4% in 2024. Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens closing the gap on Labour, while varying model projections place their vote share between roughly 24% and 38%, reflecting uncertainty over turnout, left-wing vote splitting from George Galloway’s Workers Party candidacy, and endorsements from figures such as independent Andrew Feinstein. With no dedicated constituency polls available and campaign intensity high on both sides, traders see the outcome as finely balanced across the 25-35% bands, where modest shifts in mobilisation or late swings could separate the leading ranges.