Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 33°C or higher on May 13, driven by official hourly observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau already peaking at 33°C amid persistent sunny intervals and a subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds. Current readings show midday highs fueled by low wind shear, relative humidity around 65%, and radiative heating on urban surfaces, exceeding typical May climatological averages of 29°C. Model consensus from China Meteorological Administration reinforces this with minimal cooling risks. Only an improbable late-afternoon thundershower or sudden sea breeze incursion could cap it at 32°C, but clearing conditions make that scenario negligible as the day progresses toward resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 13?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 13?
33°C or higher 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$76,039 交易量
$76,039 交易量
2026-05-13
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
Yes
33°C or higher 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$76,039 交易量
$76,039 交易量
2026-05-13
23°C or below
$881 交易量
No
24°C
$1,346 交易量
No
25°C
$794 交易量
No
26°C
$1,966 交易量
No
27°C
$2,035 交易量
No
28°C
$4,324 交易量
No
29°C
$4,500 交易量
No
30°C
$8,913 交易量
No
31°C
$5,197 交易量
No
32°C
$26,447 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$19,636 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 33°C or higher on May 13, driven by official hourly observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau already peaking at 33°C amid persistent sunny intervals and a subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds. Current readings show midday highs fueled by low wind shear, relative humidity around 65%, and radiative heating on urban surfaces, exceeding typical May climatological averages of 29°C. Model consensus from China Meteorological Administration reinforces this with minimal cooling risks. Only an improbable late-afternoon thundershower or sudden sea breeze incursion could cap it at 32°C, but clearing conditions make that scenario negligible as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
交易量
$76,039结束日期
2026-05-13市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 12:24 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 33°C or higher on May 13, driven by official hourly observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau already peaking at 33°C amid persistent sunny intervals and a subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds. Current readings show midday highs fueled by low wind shear, relative humidity around 65%, and radiative heating on urban surfaces, exceeding typical May climatological averages of 29°C. Model consensus from China Meteorological Administration reinforces this with minimal cooling risks. Only an improbable late-afternoon thundershower or sudden sea breeze incursion could cap it at 32°C, but clearing conditions make that scenario negligible as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$76,039结束日期
2026-05-13市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 12:24 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature at Bao'an International Airport reaching 33°C or higher on May 13, driven by official hourly observations from the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau already peaking at 33°C amid persistent sunny intervals and a subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds. Current readings show midday highs fueled by low wind shear, relative humidity around 65%, and radiative heating on urban surfaces, exceeding typical May climatological averages of 29°C. Model consensus from China Meteorological Administration reinforces this with minimal cooling risks. Only an improbable late-afternoon thundershower or sudden sea breeze incursion could cap it at 32°C, but clearing conditions make that scenario negligible as the day progresses toward resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题