Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 11?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 11?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$142,617 交易量
$142,617 交易量
2026-05-11
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$142,617 交易量
$142,617 交易量
2026-05-11
17°C or below
$14,332 交易量
No
18°C
$5,677 交易量
No
19°C
$6,401 交易量
No
20°C
$9,180 交易量
No
21°C
$9,330 交易量
No
22°C
$41,871 交易量
No
23°C
$8,385 交易量
No
24°C
$12,717 交易量
No
25°C
$5,208 交易量
No
26°C
$24,045 交易量
No
27°C or higher
$5,471 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ET
交易量
$142,617结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$142,617结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 3:52 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching 27°C or higher on May 11, 2026, driven by consensus from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and global models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks of 27-28°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warm southerly airflow into Shandong province. Current observational data from Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport— the market's resolution station—shows midday readings already surpassing 26°C amid low humidity and light winds, building on yesterday's 25°C high during this early-May warm spell above the 19-22°C climatological average. Realistic challenges include an unexpected intensification of sea breezes or afternoon marine stratus capping solar heating, though steering patterns and model soundings indicate minimal risk before evening cooldowns. Updated CMA bulletins expected later today could confirm the trajectory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题