**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Miami on September 11, 2026, called for a daily maximum of 88°F amid scattered showers and moderate humidity under typical late-summer southeasterly flow.** This aligned closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 89.6°F for the date and recent model consensus showing limited potential for stronger convection to suppress or clear skies to elevate the peak. NOAA observations at Miami International Airport, the market’s resolution source, produced a reading that fell squarely in the 88–89°F bin, driving near-certain trader pricing. While measurement timing, station siting, or localized sea-breeze effects could theoretically shift the exact value, the strong agreement between forecast guidance, historical analogs, and post-event data left virtually no realistic path for other ranges.