Incumbent Ed Case holds a modest edge in the August 8 Democratic primary for Hawaii’s 1st congressional district, yet the race remains tight because state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole and lesser-known challengers have drawn support from voters seeking more progressive positioning on economic and voting issues. A November 2025 poll showed Case narrowly ahead but with roughly 30 percent undecided, while recent national attention on moderate Democrats and disputes over bills such as the SAVE Act have kept the contest competitive. Fundraising and spending have increased ahead of the filing deadline, but the absence of updated public surveys and a fragmented field of candidates have left trader consensus reflecting narrow separation and substantial uncertainty until primary night.