Recent small-scale Andes virus transmission on a cruise ship in May 2026, producing roughly 11 cases and three deaths before rapid containment, has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% market-implied odds against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Most hantaviruses spread primarily through rodent excreta with no sustained human-to-human transmission, while even the Andes strain enables only rare, close-contact spread that has never produced community outbreaks. Official surveillance shows low global incidence, with 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025 and far fewer elsewhere. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of efficient airborne transmission or undetected clusters exceeding typical sporadic patterns, though current epidemiological data and expert assessments indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
是
$14,747,569 交易量
$14,747,569 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$14,747,569 交易量
$14,747,569 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-scale Andes virus transmission on a cruise ship in May 2026, producing roughly 11 cases and three deaths before rapid containment, has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% market-implied odds against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Most hantaviruses spread primarily through rodent excreta with no sustained human-to-human transmission, while even the Andes strain enables only rare, close-contact spread that has never produced community outbreaks. Official surveillance shows low global incidence, with 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025 and far fewer elsewhere. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of efficient airborne transmission or undetected clusters exceeding typical sporadic patterns, though current epidemiological data and expert assessments indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$14,747,569结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent small-scale Andes virus transmission on a cruise ship in May 2026, producing roughly 11 cases and three deaths before rapid containment, has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% market-implied odds against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Most hantaviruses spread primarily through rodent excreta with no sustained human-to-human transmission, while even the Andes strain enables only rare, close-contact spread that has never produced community outbreaks. Official surveillance shows low global incidence, with 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025 and far fewer elsewhere. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of efficient airborne transmission or undetected clusters exceeding typical sporadic patterns, though current epidemiological data and expert assessments indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,747,754结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-scale Andes virus transmission on a cruise ship in May 2026, producing roughly 11 cases and three deaths before rapid containment, has reinforced trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% market-implied odds against a hantavirus pandemic this year. Most hantaviruses spread primarily through rodent excreta with no sustained human-to-human transmission, while even the Andes strain enables only rare, close-contact spread that has never produced community outbreaks. Official surveillance shows low global incidence, with 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025 and far fewer elsewhere. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include emergence of efficient airborne transmission or undetected clusters exceeding typical sporadic patterns, though current epidemiological data and expert assessments indicate such developments remain unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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