The closely matched Polymarket odds clustered around $4.50–$6.50 reflect uncertainty over whether TSMC’s ongoing Blackwell production ramp will sufficiently ease B200 supply constraints by December 2026 amid persistent hyperscaler AI capital expenditures. Key swing factors include the pace of AMD MI350X adoption for inference workloads, custom ASIC deployments at Google, Amazon, and Microsoft that could divert demand, and potential timing of NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin architecture. Current on-demand rates averaging $5–$7 per hour at neo-cloud providers remain elevated due to limited availability, yet historical patterns and analyst projections suggest possible moderation toward $3–$5 if power and memory supply stabilize without a major new demand surge from frontier large language models.