Recent polling from sources including Pew, Morning Consult, and Echelon Insights shows Republican support among Black voters holding in the low-to-mid teens for the 2026 midterms, reflecting modest continued shifts from 2022 and 2024 levels on issues such as the economy, crime, and education. This positioning stems from targeted GOP outreach by figures including Rep. Byron Donalds, alongside voter reactions to policy priorities, though strong Democratic identification and turnout motivations among Black voters have limited broader movement. The tight clustering of trader probabilities around 10–13% captures poll variation between roughly 8% and 18%, with separation likely hinging on final turnout patterns, late-cycle messaging on economic conditions, and any shifts in independent or younger Black voter blocs before November.