**Olivier Faure holds a commanding position at 100% implied probability for second place in the first round of the French Socialist and social-democratic primary.** The closed primary, organized by the Parti socialiste, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste to select a 2027 presidential candidate, concluded its first round on 11 October 2026 after a cyberattack extended online voting. Official tallies showed Raphaël Glucksmann of Place publique taking roughly 66% of the vote, placing Faure second at about 14.5%, ahead of Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Jérôme Guedj. Traders reflect this outcome through near-certain pricing on Faure, consistent with the verified results from roughly 120,000 participants. A narrow margin or successful contestation of the extended voting period could theoretically alter the ranking, though no such developments have emerged.