Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
3% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,998结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETThe first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.Louisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-05 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-05 House election.
交易量
$1,998结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETLouisiana’s 5th congressional district uses a nonpartisan blanket primary on November 3, 2026, where a candidate must exceed 50 percent of the vote for an outright win or the top two advance to a December 12 runoff. The open seat, vacated after incumbent Julia Letlow entered the Senate race, drew nine candidates by the August 7 filing deadline, including multiple Republicans such as state Sen. Stewart Cathey, state Reps. Michael Echols and Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, and Austin Magee, plus three Democrats. This fragmented field in a Republican-leaning district has produced no polling or endorsement consolidation strong enough to approach a majority. Trader consensus therefore prices an outright first-round winner at just 1.7 percent, consistent with historical outcomes in similarly crowded Louisiana House contests. Late shifts in turnout, a surprise endorsement, or unexpected candidate withdrawal remain the primary variables that could alter the outlook before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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