**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,644结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETThe first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
交易量
$1,644结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET**Steve Scalise's strong incumbency in Louisiana's 1st congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean, drives the elevated trader consensus for an outright first-round winner.** The seat, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters, features limited opposition from Democrat Lauren Jewett, Republican Randall Arrington, and unaffiliated candidate Liddy Glass in the November 3, 2026, majority-vote primary. Scalise captured 66.8% in 2024, and the district's partisan voting index and historical margins support expectations of another majority performance. Candidate filing closed in August with no significant shifts in the competitive landscape since then. In Louisiana's system, a candidate exceeding 50% avoids the December 12 runoff; the 95% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this structural and candidate-specific positioning ahead of the November contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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