Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have elevated expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, with the producer price index rising 5.4% year-over-year through August amid oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East supply disruptions. A resilient labor market, evidenced by 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has reinforced the case for policy normalization under Chair Kevin Warsh. These factors underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike, with traders assigning just 34.5% odds to no change as cumulative tightening priced into year-end futures approaches 50 basis points. The upcoming September 12 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于25 bps increase 60%
无变化 35%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$633,288 交易量
$633,288 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
无变化
35%
25 bps increase
60%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 60%
无变化 35%
25 bps decrease 4.3%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$633,288 交易量
$633,288 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$96,410 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$148,665 交易量
4%
无变化
$118,051 交易量
35%
25 bps increase
$172,236 交易量
60%
50+ bps increase
$97,924 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have elevated expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, with the producer price index rising 5.4% year-over-year through August amid oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East supply disruptions. A resilient labor market, evidenced by 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has reinforced the case for policy normalization under Chair Kevin Warsh. These factors underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike, with traders assigning just 34.5% odds to no change as cumulative tightening priced into year-end futures approaches 50 basis points. The upcoming September 12 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$633,288结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have elevated expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, with the producer price index rising 5.4% year-over-year through August amid oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East supply disruptions. A resilient labor market, evidenced by 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has reinforced the case for policy normalization under Chair Kevin Warsh. These factors underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike, with traders assigning just 34.5% odds to no change as cumulative tightening priced into year-end futures approaches 50 basis points. The upcoming September 12 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$633,288结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRecent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have elevated expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, with the producer price index rising 5.4% year-over-year through August amid oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to Middle East supply disruptions. A resilient labor market, evidenced by 162,000 August payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has reinforced the case for policy normalization under Chair Kevin Warsh. These factors underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike, with traders assigning just 34.5% odds to no change as cumulative tightening priced into year-end futures approaches 50 basis points. The upcoming September 12 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could further shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题