Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges have elevated risks around Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, and especially Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of shipments. Repeated strikes on Kharg infrastructure and nearby Strait of Hormuz positions have slashed Iranian loadings to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months, down sharply from prior levels, with exports heavily rerouted or curtailed amid blockades and mine threats. These developments directly pressure Tehran's oil revenue, a key funding source for the regime, while heightening global supply concerns given the strait's role in roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. Traders are monitoring escalation thresholds, potential seizure scenarios, and any de-escalation talks that could stabilize control or shift energy benchmarks such as Brent crude and tanker rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$136,381 交易量
2026-09-30
September 30
1%
$136,381 交易量
September 30
$83,605 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges have elevated risks around Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, and especially Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of shipments. Repeated strikes on Kharg infrastructure and nearby Strait of Hormuz positions have slashed Iranian loadings to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months, down sharply from prior levels, with exports heavily rerouted or curtailed amid blockades and mine threats. These developments directly pressure Tehran's oil revenue, a key funding source for the regime, while heightening global supply concerns given the strait's role in roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. Traders are monitoring escalation thresholds, potential seizure scenarios, and any de-escalation talks that could stabilize control or shift energy benchmarks such as Brent crude and tanker rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$136,381结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges have elevated risks around Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, and especially Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of shipments. Repeated strikes on Kharg infrastructure and nearby Strait of Hormuz positions have slashed Iranian loadings to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months, down sharply from prior levels, with exports heavily rerouted or curtailed amid blockades and mine threats. These developments directly pressure Tehran's oil revenue, a key funding source for the regime, while heightening global supply concerns given the strait's role in roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. Traders are monitoring escalation thresholds, potential seizure scenarios, and any de-escalation talks that could stabilize control or shift energy benchmarks such as Brent crude and tanker rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$136,381结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETOngoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges have elevated risks around Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, and especially Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude export terminal handling roughly 90% of shipments. Repeated strikes on Kharg infrastructure and nearby Strait of Hormuz positions have slashed Iranian loadings to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months, down sharply from prior levels, with exports heavily rerouted or curtailed amid blockades and mine threats. These developments directly pressure Tehran's oil revenue, a key funding source for the regime, while heightening global supply concerns given the strait's role in roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. Traders are monitoring escalation thresholds, potential seizure scenarios, and any de-escalation talks that could stabilize control or shift energy benchmarks such as Brent crude and tanker rates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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