**Moody’s September 25 affirmation of the European Union’s Aaa rating with a stable outlook underpins the 73.5% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027.** The agency cited the bloc’s joint-and-several support framework, direct call on member contributions capped at 2% of GNI, and a weighted-average shareholder rating of “a1,” anchored by high-grade contributors such as Germany. While euro-area fiscal deficits are projected to widen to around 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and debt-to-GDP ratios edge higher, the EU’s supranational borrowing structure insulates it from individual sovereign pressures evident in France’s recent Scope downgrade and elevated peripheral spreads. Negotiations on the 2028–2034 Multiannual Financial Framework represent the next potential catalyst, yet current trader consensus prices in continuity of the existing support mechanism through year-end 2026.