The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 65% implied probability stems primarily from its May 2026 series finale and record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category, which voters appear to be rewarding with strong momentum. Traders see this as a classic send-off narrative boosting the CBS program over perennial frontrunner Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (17%), whose consistent excellence faces diluted support in the expanded field. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (13%) benefits from recent public sympathy and reinstatement buzz, while Saturday Night Live (3.2%) and The Daily Show (1.3%) trail despite historical pedigree. The September ceremony remains the key catalyst, with guild and precursor signals likely to refine the current trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于艾美奖2026 ：杰出品种系列
艾美奖2026 ：杰出品种系列
《深夜秀与斯蒂芬·科尔伯特》 65%
《吉米·坎摩尔秀》 18.5%
《上周今夜约翰·奥利弗》 17.0%
《周六夜现场》 3.6%
$58,357 交易量
$58,357 交易量
2026-09-14
《深夜秀与斯蒂芬·科尔伯特》
65%
《吉米·坎摩尔秀》
15%
《上周今夜约翰·奥利弗》
17%
《周六夜现场》
4%
《每日秀》
1%
《深夜秀与斯蒂芬·科尔伯特》 65%
《吉米·坎摩尔秀》 18.5%
《上周今夜约翰·奥利弗》 17.0%
《周六夜现场》 3.6%
$58,357 交易量
$58,357 交易量
2026-09-14
《深夜秀与斯蒂芬·科尔伯特》
$18,557 交易量
65%
《吉米·坎摩尔秀》
$15,484 交易量
15%
《上周今夜约翰·奥利弗》
$9,905 交易量
17%
《周六夜现场》
$6,490 交易量
4%
《每日秀》
$7,921 交易量
1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 65% implied probability stems primarily from its May 2026 series finale and record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category, which voters appear to be rewarding with strong momentum. Traders see this as a classic send-off narrative boosting the CBS program over perennial frontrunner Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (17%), whose consistent excellence faces diluted support in the expanded field. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (13%) benefits from recent public sympathy and reinstatement buzz, while Saturday Night Live (3.2%) and The Daily Show (1.3%) trail despite historical pedigree. The September ceremony remains the key catalyst, with guild and precursor signals likely to refine the current trader consensus.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
交易量
$58,357结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 65% implied probability stems primarily from its May 2026 series finale and record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category, which voters appear to be rewarding with strong momentum. Traders see this as a classic send-off narrative boosting the CBS program over perennial frontrunner Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (17%), whose consistent excellence faces diluted support in the expanded field. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (13%) benefits from recent public sympathy and reinstatement buzz, while Saturday Night Live (3.2%) and The Daily Show (1.3%) trail despite historical pedigree. The September ceremony remains the key catalyst, with guild and precursor signals likely to refine the current trader consensus.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$58,357结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s 65% implied probability stems primarily from its May 2026 series finale and record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category, which voters appear to be rewarding with strong momentum. Traders see this as a classic send-off narrative boosting the CBS program over perennial frontrunner Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (17%), whose consistent excellence faces diluted support in the expanded field. Jimmy Kimmel Live! (13%) benefits from recent public sympathy and reinstatement buzz, while Saturday Night Live (3.2%) and The Daily Show (1.3%) trail despite historical pedigree. The September ceremony remains the key catalyst, with guild and precursor signals likely to refine the current trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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