Trader consensus on Polymarket has solidified at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 18, 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 12:00 PM ET, as the official xtracker confirms the exact tally—main feed posts, quotes, and reposts only, excluding replies—falling precisely in this bin. This strong positioning stems from Elon's consistent mid-volume rhythm, averaging 15-20 posts daily amid engagements on Grok AI advancements, Australian birth rate declines, charitable scrutiny, and EU censorship pushback, without the tweet storms seen in prior high-news weeks. No major catalysts like product launches or feuds spiked activity, aligning with his moderated April 2026 pace. Realistic upsets are negligible post-period, barring oracle disputes over edge-case counts, which historical resolutions deem improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 100.0%
少于40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$2,465,900 交易量
$2,465,900 交易量
2026-04-20
少于40
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
40-64 100.0%
少于40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$2,465,900 交易量
$2,465,900 交易量
2026-04-20
少于40
$709,532 交易量
否
40-64
$465,516 交易量
是
65-89
$423,202 交易量
否
90-114
$357,450 交易量
否
115-139
$160,228 交易量
否
140-164
$126,406 交易量
否
165-189
$73,597 交易量
否
190-214
$39,652 交易量
否
215-239
$30,405 交易量
否
240+
$79,912 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has solidified at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 18, 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 12:00 PM ET, as the official xtracker confirms the exact tally—main feed posts, quotes, and reposts only, excluding replies—falling precisely in this bin. This strong positioning stems from Elon's consistent mid-volume rhythm, averaging 15-20 posts daily amid engagements on Grok AI advancements, Australian birth rate declines, charitable scrutiny, and EU censorship pushback, without the tweet storms seen in prior high-news weeks. No major catalysts like product launches or feuds spiked activity, aligning with his moderated April 2026 pace. Realistic upsets are negligible post-period, barring oracle disputes over edge-case counts, which historical resolutions deem improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$2,465,900结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has solidified at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 18, 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 12:00 PM ET, as the official xtracker confirms the exact tally—main feed posts, quotes, and reposts only, excluding replies—falling precisely in this bin. This strong positioning stems from Elon's consistent mid-volume rhythm, averaging 15-20 posts daily amid engagements on Grok AI advancements, Australian birth rate declines, charitable scrutiny, and EU censorship pushback, without the tweet storms seen in prior high-news weeks. No major catalysts like product launches or feuds spiked activity, aligning with his moderated April 2026 pace. Realistic upsets are negligible post-period, barring oracle disputes over edge-case counts, which historical resolutions deem improbable.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$2,465,900结束日期
2026-04-20市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has solidified at 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from April 18, 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 12:00 PM ET, as the official xtracker confirms the exact tally—main feed posts, quotes, and reposts only, excluding replies—falling precisely in this bin. This strong positioning stems from Elon's consistent mid-volume rhythm, averaging 15-20 posts daily amid engagements on Grok AI advancements, Australian birth rate declines, charitable scrutiny, and EU censorship pushback, without the tweet storms seen in prior high-news weeks. No major catalysts like product launches or feuds spiked activity, aligning with his moderated April 2026 pace. Realistic upsets are negligible post-period, barring oracle disputes over edge-case counts, which historical resolutions deem improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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