Nigel Farage’s commanding lead in the Clacton by-election stems from Reform UK’s strong local base and the decision by Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens to boycott the contest, leaving only minor-party and novelty candidates such as Count Binface. Recent constituency polling shows Farage on approximately 73 percent against Binface’s 20 percent, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance in the seat and underscoring limited organized opposition. Traders therefore price a margin exceeding 30 percentage points at 96.5 percent. A narrower result would require unexpectedly high turnout for fringe candidates or a late shift in voter sentiment, developments that have not materialized in pre-poll surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于克拉克顿补选：胜利边际（下法拉奇括号）
克拉克顿补选：胜利边际（下法拉奇括号）
法拉奇30%+ 96.5%
法拉奇 20-30% 2.8%
法拉奇 <10% 2.0%
Count Binface 1.9%
$39,449 交易量
$39,449 交易量
2026-08-13
法拉奇30%+
97%
法拉奇 20-30%
3%
法拉奇10-20%
1%
法拉奇 <10%
2%
Count Binface
2%
其他
<1%
法拉奇30%+ 96.5%
法拉奇 20-30% 2.8%
法拉奇 <10% 2.0%
Count Binface 1.9%
$39,449 交易量
$39,449 交易量
2026-08-13
法拉奇30%+
$32,147 交易量
97%
法拉奇 20-30%
$611 交易量
3%
法拉奇10-20%
$549 交易量
1%
法拉奇 <10%
$366 交易量
2%
Count Binface
$4,458 交易量
2%
其他
$1,320 交易量
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage’s commanding lead in the Clacton by-election stems from Reform UK’s strong local base and the decision by Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens to boycott the contest, leaving only minor-party and novelty candidates such as Count Binface. Recent constituency polling shows Farage on approximately 73 percent against Binface’s 20 percent, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance in the seat and underscoring limited organized opposition. Traders therefore price a margin exceeding 30 percentage points at 96.5 percent. A narrower result would require unexpectedly high turnout for fringe candidates or a late shift in voter sentiment, developments that have not materialized in pre-poll surveys.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Jul 8, 2026, 11:31 AM ET
交易量
$39,449结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage’s commanding lead in the Clacton by-election stems from Reform UK’s strong local base and the decision by Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens to boycott the contest, leaving only minor-party and novelty candidates such as Count Binface. Recent constituency polling shows Farage on approximately 73 percent against Binface’s 20 percent, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance in the seat and underscoring limited organized opposition. Traders therefore price a margin exceeding 30 percentage points at 96.5 percent. A narrower result would require unexpectedly high turnout for fringe candidates or a late shift in voter sentiment, developments that have not materialized in pre-poll surveys.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$39,449结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Nigel Farage’s commanding lead in the Clacton by-election stems from Reform UK’s strong local base and the decision by Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens to boycott the contest, leaving only minor-party and novelty candidates such as Count Binface. Recent constituency polling shows Farage on approximately 73 percent against Binface’s 20 percent, consistent with his 2024 general-election performance in the seat and underscoring limited organized opposition. Traders therefore price a margin exceeding 30 percentage points at 96.5 percent. A narrower result would require unexpectedly high turnout for fringe candidates or a late shift in voter sentiment, developments that have not materialized in pre-poll surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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