SpaceX's successful Flight 13 in late July 2026, where Ship 40 completed a precise reentry, landing burn, and intact Indian Ocean splashdown—the first such survival—has driven optimism for an upper-stage tower catch. Elon Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the attempt but revised the timeline in August to "a few months," citing the landing's catch-ready accuracy while noting regulatory approvals and further data review as gating factors. The program has already achieved multiple Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla arms, validating guidance for suborbital returns, but the orbital-class ship trajectory adds complexity around heat shield performance, terminal control, and FAA licensing. Flight 14, now eyed for September with Starlink V3 deployment, remains the next major catalyst alongside ongoing chopstick testing and Ship 40 recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月30日
8%
2026年10月31日
46%
$1,968 交易量
2026年9月30日
8%
2026年10月31日
46%
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
市场开放时间: Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
SpaceX's successful Flight 13 in late July 2026, where Ship 40 completed a precise reentry, landing burn, and intact Indian Ocean splashdown—the first such survival—has driven optimism for an upper-stage tower catch. Elon Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the attempt but revised the timeline in August to "a few months," citing the landing's catch-ready accuracy while noting regulatory approvals and further data review as gating factors. The program has already achieved multiple Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla arms, validating guidance for suborbital returns, but the orbital-class ship trajectory adds complexity around heat shield performance, terminal control, and FAA licensing. Flight 14, now eyed for September with Starlink V3 deployment, remains the next major catalyst alongside ongoing chopstick testing and Ship 40 recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于



警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题