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icon for 筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?

筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?

icon for 筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?

筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?

最新
2026-09-30
Polymarket

$1,968 交易量

Polymarket

2026年9月30日

$74 交易量

8%

2026年10月31日

$12 交易量

46%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's successful Flight 13 in late July 2026, where Ship 40 completed a precise reentry, landing burn, and intact Indian Ocean splashdown—the first such survival—has driven optimism for an upper-stage tower catch. Elon Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the attempt but revised the timeline in August to "a few months," citing the landing's catch-ready accuracy while noting regulatory approvals and further data review as gating factors. The program has already achieved multiple Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla arms, validating guidance for suborbital returns, but the orbital-class ship trajectory adds complexity around heat shield performance, terminal control, and FAA licensing. Flight 14, now eyed for September with Starlink V3 deployment, remains the next major catalyst alongside ongoing chopstick testing and Ship 40 recovery.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
交易量
$1,968
结束日期
2026-11-01
市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's successful Flight 13 in late July 2026, where Ship 40 completed a precise reentry, landing burn, and intact Indian Ocean splashdown—the first such survival—has driven optimism for an upper-stage tower catch. Elon Musk initially targeted Flight 14 for the attempt but revised the timeline in August to "a few months," citing the landing's catch-ready accuracy while noting regulatory approvals and further data review as gating factors. The program has already achieved multiple Super Heavy booster catches with the Mechazilla arms, validating guidance for suborbital returns, but the orbital-class ship trajectory adds complexity around heat shield performance, terminal control, and FAA licensing. Flight 14, now eyed for September with Starlink V3 deployment, remains the next major catalyst alongside ongoing chopstick testing and Ship 40 recovery.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
交易量
$1,968
结束日期
2026-11-01
市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

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常见问题

"筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年10月31日",概率为 46%,其次是"2026年9月30日",概率为 8%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 46¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 46%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Aug 8, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?"的当前领先者是"2026年10月31日",概率为 46%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 46%。紧随其后的结果是"2026年9月30日",概率为 8%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"筷子抓住星际飞船上层…… ?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。