Trader consensus on Polymarket places Arthur Harari's The Unknown as the slim Palme d'Or frontrunner at 36.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Valeska Grisebach's Das Geträumte Abenteuer (31%) and Marie Kreutzer's Gentle Monster (30.5%), reflecting intense competition among auteur-driven entries in the 2026 Cannes lineup unveiled April 9. These leaders benefit from directors' strong track records—Harari's Oscar-winning Anatomy of a Fall screenplay, Grisebach's critically lauded Western, and Kreutzer's Corsage Oscar buzz—amid early festival hype following the May 12 opening with honorary Palmes to Peter Jackson and Barbra Streisand. With Gentle Monster screening today (May 15), The Unknown on May 18, and Das Geträumte Abenteuer on May 22, initial critical reception and Park Chan-wook-led jury reactions will be pivotal swing factors in this unpredictable race, where secret votes and late momentum often decide outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER 71%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED) 45%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 18%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
71%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
45%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
18%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
10%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
10%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
10%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
10%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
10%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
10%
MOULIN by László NEMES
10%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
10%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
9%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
14%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
7%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
4%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
11%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
-
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
-
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER 71%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED) 45%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 18%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
71%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
45%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
18%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
10%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
10%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
10%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
10%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
10%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
10%
MOULIN by László NEMES
10%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
10%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
9%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
14%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
7%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
4%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
11%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
-
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
-
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket places Arthur Harari's The Unknown as the slim Palme d'Or frontrunner at 36.5% implied probability, closely trailed by Valeska Grisebach's Das Geträumte Abenteuer (31%) and Marie Kreutzer's Gentle Monster (30.5%), reflecting intense competition among auteur-driven entries in the 2026 Cannes lineup unveiled April 9. These leaders benefit from directors' strong track records—Harari's Oscar-winning Anatomy of a Fall screenplay, Grisebach's critically lauded Western, and Kreutzer's Corsage Oscar buzz—amid early festival hype following the May 12 opening with honorary Palmes to Peter Jackson and Barbra Streisand. With Gentle Monster screening today (May 15), The Unknown on May 18, and Das Geträumte Abenteuer on May 22, initial critical reception and Park Chan-wook-led jury reactions will be pivotal swing factors in this unpredictable race, where secret votes and late momentum often decide outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题