Pre-election polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel placed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the low-to-mid 40s for Brazil’s October 4 first round, reflecting his established base in the Northeast, support among Bolsa Família recipients, and a fragmented field of challengers including Flávio Bolsonaro. Mixed government approval ratings and a tightening contest kept the outcome competitive yet above the 44% threshold in aggregated surveys. Final tallies confirmed Lula at approximately 45% of valid votes, consistent with trader consensus on the implied probability for that range amid stable regional voting patterns and limited late shifts. A runoff on October 25 now follows.