SDA secured the largest share of seats in the Bosnian House of Representatives following the 4 October 2026 general election, with approximately 19.6 percent of the national vote and nine mandates. Its dominant result stemmed from strong backing among Bosniak voters in the Federation, where it outperformed the outgoing Troika parties by a wide margin and captured the top position in cantonal and entity-level contests. Ethnic bloc voting reinforced this outcome, while SNSD retained its leading position in Republika Srpska and HDZ BiH consolidated Croat support. Low turnout near 40 percent and the debut of new election technologies did not alter the established ethnic patterns. Official certification by the Central Election Commission remains the final step for market resolution; disputes over seat allocation or coalition negotiations could still shift secondary probabilities but are unlikely to overturn SDA’s primary position.