Alibaba's dominant 90.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its August 3 release of the Qwen3.8-Max large language model, a 2.4-trillion-parameter system that quickly topped Chinese entries on Arena.AI text benchmarks and ranked second globally in vision capabilities. This followed sustained investment in AI agents and cloud separation, positioning the company ahead of rivals like Moonshot's Kimi K3 or DeepSeek models on recent leaderboards. Traders appear to view the timing and scale as decisive for end-of-August resolution. A late-month release or benchmark surge from Moonshot, Z.ai, or DeepSeek could still narrow the gap if it demonstrably surpasses Qwen3.8-Max on key metrics before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿里巴巴 91%
Moonshot 3.3%
Z.ai 3.1%
DeepSeek 2.1%
$427,977 交易量
$427,977 交易量
2026-08-31
阿里巴巴
91%
Moonshot
3%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
2%
百度
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
美团
<1%
腾讯
<1%
StepFun
<1%
阿里巴巴 91%
Moonshot 3.3%
Z.ai 3.1%
DeepSeek 2.1%
$427,977 交易量
$427,977 交易量
2026-08-31
阿里巴巴
$98,916 交易量
91%
Moonshot
$42,707 交易量
3%
Z.ai
$61,102 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$65,864 交易量
2%
百度
$48,400 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$23,247 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$44,042 交易量
<1%
小米
$24,393 交易量
<1%
美团
$2,047 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$13,953 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$3,333 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 90.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its August 3 release of the Qwen3.8-Max large language model, a 2.4-trillion-parameter system that quickly topped Chinese entries on Arena.AI text benchmarks and ranked second globally in vision capabilities. This followed sustained investment in AI agents and cloud separation, positioning the company ahead of rivals like Moonshot's Kimi K3 or DeepSeek models on recent leaderboards. Traders appear to view the timing and scale as decisive for end-of-August resolution. A late-month release or benchmark surge from Moonshot, Z.ai, or DeepSeek could still narrow the gap if it demonstrably surpasses Qwen3.8-Max on key metrics before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ET
交易量
$427,977结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 90.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its August 3 release of the Qwen3.8-Max large language model, a 2.4-trillion-parameter system that quickly topped Chinese entries on Arena.AI text benchmarks and ranked second globally in vision capabilities. This followed sustained investment in AI agents and cloud separation, positioning the company ahead of rivals like Moonshot's Kimi K3 or DeepSeek models on recent leaderboards. Traders appear to view the timing and scale as decisive for end-of-August resolution. A late-month release or benchmark surge from Moonshot, Z.ai, or DeepSeek could still narrow the gap if it demonstrably surpasses Qwen3.8-Max on key metrics before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$427,977结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ETAlibaba's dominant 90.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its August 3 release of the Qwen3.8-Max large language model, a 2.4-trillion-parameter system that quickly topped Chinese entries on Arena.AI text benchmarks and ranked second globally in vision capabilities. This followed sustained investment in AI agents and cloud separation, positioning the company ahead of rivals like Moonshot's Kimi K3 or DeepSeek models on recent leaderboards. Traders appear to view the timing and scale as decisive for end-of-August resolution. A late-month release or benchmark surge from Moonshot, Z.ai, or DeepSeek could still narrow the gap if it demonstrably surpasses Qwen3.8-Max on key metrics before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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