Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$49,411 交易量
$49,411 交易量
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
是
claude-opus-5-high
否
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
否
claude-opus-4-6
否
claude-fable-5
否
其他
否
claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
$49,411 交易量
$49,411 交易量
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
$21,687 交易量
是
claude-opus-5-high
$5,894 交易量
否
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,713 交易量
否
claude-opus-4-6
$1,243 交易量
否
claude-fable-5
$8,818 交易量
否
其他
$4,056 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$49,411结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$49,411结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Traders have converged on Claude Opus 5 Max as the top artificial intelligence model on August 17, with market-implied odds reaching 100 percent due to its demonstrated strengths in advanced reasoning, multimodal processing, and benchmark performance. Anthropic’s latest large language model has benefited from recent official releases and third-party evaluations that highlight gains in capability and AI safety features relative to competitors. This consensus reflects aggregated trader sentiment backed by real capital rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include surprise releases or capability jumps from OpenAI or Google DeepMind, or new regulatory constraints on model deployment ahead of major industry events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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