The 2026 Berlin state election on September 20 produced a fragmented result with five parties clearing the threshold and earning direct mandates across the 78 constituencies. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional rules, this distribution generates overhang mandates for parties exceeding their Zweitstimmen share in Wahlkreise, offset by leveling seats to restore proportionality beyond the statutory minimum of 130. Initial tallies indicated 158 total seats, but a subsequent recount in Spandau 1 transferred one direct mandate from the CDU to the AfD, eliminating one overhang and four associated leveling seats. The adjusted total now stands at 153, aligning with the market’s dominant 153–157 range. Final confirmation by the Landeswahlausschuss on October 12 will resolve the contract, with trader pricing reflecting this verified procedural correction rather than earlier projections.