Recent inflation data holding steady at 6% in July, driven by fuel price surges and supply disruptions from refinery attacks, has reinforced trader expectations for caution at the Bank of Russia's September 11 meeting. Persistent core pressures above the 4% target, combined with one-off factors and expansionary fiscal policy, limit room for further easing after the July 25 basis point cut to 14%. Analysts highlight decelerating lending and weaker demand signals as supporting factors for a possible small decrease, yet elevated inflation expectations and external risks tilt the consensus toward no change as the most probable outcome. The low probability of an increase reflects the absence of overheating indicators in recent months.