**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian restrictions on commercial shipping have driven visible transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily levels in late September 2026.** Market-implied odds reflect this reality, with the 0-5 bracket at 96.5% as of early October. Pre-conflict baselines of roughly 70-130 vessels per day collapsed after February 28 strikes, and IMF PortWatch and Kpler tracking show AIS-visible commodity transits averaging in the low teens or below through September, with multiple days recording fewer than 10 crossings amid threats, attacks, and "dark" routing. Oil flows have partially recovered via pipelines, ship-to-ship transfers, and selective dark transits—Kpler estimated around 7-10 million barrels per day in September—but reported arrivals remain suppressed. Recent late-September attacks and IRGC warnings have reinforced the low-traffic environment. A swift de-escalation or verified safe-passage agreement could lift visible counts, though sustained alternative routing and sanctions risks would likely cap any rebound near term.