**Ongoing US-Israel-Iran hostilities, including Iranian routing mandates, naval blockades, and periodic strikes on vessels, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages throughout late August 2026.** Pre-crisis baselines of roughly 85–138 transits per day collapsed after February escalations, with recent Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and JMIC data showing 4–7 vessel crossings on many days in the final week of August and 7-day averages near 4–5 amid widespread “dark” AIS transits and shuttle operations. This environment has produced overwhelming market-implied odds (99.6%) for a 0–20 outcome, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption. A durable diplomatic breakthrough lifting sanctions, blockades, and threats—or a verified return to pre-war traffic levels above 60 daily—would be required to shift probabilities materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 交易量
$110,424 交易量
2026-08-31
0-20
100%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 99.6%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,424 交易量
$110,424 交易量
2026-08-31
0-20
$61,187 交易量
100%
20-40
$14,553 交易量
<1%
40-60
$14,967 交易量
<1%
60-80
$11,339 交易量
<1%
80+
$8,378 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Israel-Iran hostilities, including Iranian routing mandates, naval blockades, and periodic strikes on vessels, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages throughout late August 2026.** Pre-crisis baselines of roughly 85–138 transits per day collapsed after February escalations, with recent Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and JMIC data showing 4–7 vessel crossings on many days in the final week of August and 7-day averages near 4–5 amid widespread “dark” AIS transits and shuttle operations. This environment has produced overwhelming market-implied odds (99.6%) for a 0–20 outcome, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption. A durable diplomatic breakthrough lifting sanctions, blockades, and threats—or a verified return to pre-war traffic levels above 60 daily—would be required to shift probabilities materially.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$110,424结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Israel-Iran hostilities, including Iranian routing mandates, naval blockades, and periodic strikes on vessels, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages throughout late August 2026.** Pre-crisis baselines of roughly 85–138 transits per day collapsed after February escalations, with recent Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and JMIC data showing 4–7 vessel crossings on many days in the final week of August and 7-day averages near 4–5 amid widespread “dark” AIS transits and shuttle operations. This environment has produced overwhelming market-implied odds (99.6%) for a 0–20 outcome, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption. A durable diplomatic breakthrough lifting sanctions, blockades, and threats—or a verified return to pre-war traffic levels above 60 daily—would be required to shift probabilities materially.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$110,424结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET**Ongoing US-Israel-Iran hostilities, including Iranian routing mandates, naval blockades, and periodic strikes on vessels, have suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit daily averages throughout late August 2026.** Pre-crisis baselines of roughly 85–138 transits per day collapsed after February escalations, with recent Kpler, IMF PortWatch, and JMIC data showing 4–7 vessel crossings on many days in the final week of August and 7-day averages near 4–5 amid widespread “dark” AIS transits and shuttle operations. This environment has produced overwhelming market-implied odds (99.6%) for a 0–20 outcome, reflecting trader consensus on sustained disruption. A durable diplomatic breakthrough lifting sanctions, blockades, and threats—or a verified return to pre-war traffic levels above 60 daily—would be required to shift probabilities materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题