Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June, has anchored trader expectations for the August annual rate near 3.3–3.4%, as reflected in current market-implied probabilities. Moderation in energy prices following earlier Middle East-driven spikes, alongside contained shelter and core goods pressures, supports the consensus around these levels, though persistent services inflation and potential gasoline rebounds could push readings higher. The September 11 release will resolve the market, with monthly components in energy, food, and supercore services serving as key swing factors against a backdrop of still-elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.