Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for Apple Vision Pro 2 releasing before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, production confirmations, or supply chain signals from Apple since the original mixed reality headset's 2024 debut. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and MacRumors reports indicate Apple suspended Vision Pro 2 development by mid-2024 amid dismal sales under 500,000 units, pivoting resources to a lighter "Vision Air" or AR glasses slated for late 2027 or beyond. This aligns with Apple's typical 2-3 year hardware cycles and caution in spatial computing after initial market tepidity. A surprise reveal at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated M5 chip integration could shift odds, though low app ecosystem adoption tempers expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for Apple Vision Pro 2 releasing before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, production confirmations, or supply chain signals from Apple since the original mixed reality headset's 2024 debut. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and MacRumors reports indicate Apple suspended Vision Pro 2 development by mid-2024 amid dismal sales under 500,000 units, pivoting resources to a lighter "Vision Air" or AR glasses slated for late 2027 or beyond. This aligns with Apple's typical 2-3 year hardware cycles and caution in spatial computing after initial market tepidity. A surprise reveal at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated M5 chip integration could shift odds, though low app ecosystem adoption tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$2,275结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for Apple Vision Pro 2 releasing before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, production confirmations, or supply chain signals from Apple since the original mixed reality headset's 2024 debut. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and MacRumors reports indicate Apple suspended Vision Pro 2 development by mid-2024 amid dismal sales under 500,000 units, pivoting resources to a lighter "Vision Air" or AR glasses slated for late 2027 or beyond. This aligns with Apple's typical 2-3 year hardware cycles and caution in spatial computing after initial market tepidity. A surprise reveal at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated M5 chip integration could shift odds, though low app ecosystem adoption tempers expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,275结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 93% implied probability for Apple Vision Pro 2 releasing before 2027, driven by the absence of official announcements, production confirmations, or supply chain signals from Apple since the original mixed reality headset's 2024 debut. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and MacRumors reports indicate Apple suspended Vision Pro 2 development by mid-2024 amid dismal sales under 500,000 units, pivoting resources to a lighter "Vision Air" or AR glasses slated for late 2027 or beyond. This aligns with Apple's typical 2-3 year hardware cycles and caution in spatial computing after initial market tepidity. A surprise reveal at WWDC in June 2026 or accelerated M5 chip integration could shift odds, though low app ecosystem adoption tempers expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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