**Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline and aggressive valuation targets are the main driver behind the 68.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI for a higher closing market cap on debut.** The company recently hosted pre-IPO investor meetings highlighting Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion (up 45% sequentially) and adjusted profitability, with plans for a November roadshow targeting $1.8–2 trillion or more—double its $965 billion May private valuation. In contrast, OpenAI has deferred any 2026 listing to prioritize AI safety and alignment, instead pursuing bridge private funding at roughly $1.4 trillion after its $852 billion March round. Traders see Anthropic’s earlier confidential filing, stronger recent revenue trajectory, and concrete path to public markets as positioning it for a larger debut capitalization despite both firms facing heavy compute costs and competitive pressures in large language models. Upcoming catalysts include Anthropic’s formal roadshow and OpenAI’s next funding updates.