Recent outages and degraded performance in OpenAI's Codex coding agent underpin the 82.5% market-implied odds for another incident before year-end. A 56-minute full outage on September 25 affected the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension with elevated errors and 401 failures, prompting usage limit resets. Additional degraded performance hit Codex on September 29 and October 7, including Dot thread failures that slowed responses and blocked new Work threads. These recurring internal issues, tied to scaling large language model infrastructure under heavy developer load, have established a clear pattern. Traders weigh this track record against typical AI service reliability challenges, with no announced structural fixes yet shifting sentiment.