Omar Aziz (PSD) advanced from the October 4 first round with roughly 40.6% of valid votes and leads runoff polling against Professora Maria do Carmo (PL), who received about 24.5%. Aziz secured victories in the large majority of municipalities, while Maria do Carmo prevailed in Manaus and a handful of other cities. Incumbent governor Roberto Cidade (União) and David Almeida (Avante) finished behind and did not advance. Aziz enters the October 25 second round with endorsements from nearly all of the state’s mayors and a broad coalition that includes PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and elements of the PT-aligned federation. Traders assign him an 87.5% implied probability of victory, consistent with his established lead in recent surveys and structural advantages in interior turnout. Maria do Carmo holds 13.5%, reflecting her narrower base and the competitive but lopsided runoff dynamics.