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icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

icon for Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

8% 概率
Polymarket
最新
8% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s May 2025 directive and April 2026 request for $152 million in the fiscal 2027 budget to rebuild Alcatraz as a federal prison have kept the proposal under active evaluation by the Bureau of Prisons, yet Congress has not approved funding and the project faces steep logistical, environmental, and local political hurdles. The site remains a National Park Service tourist destination with no water, sewage, or modern infrastructure suitable for a maximum-security facility, and San Francisco officials have publicly dismissed the plan as unrealistic. Full restoration and operational reopening by the end of 2026 would require congressional appropriations, extensive construction, and resolution of legal and permitting challenges that historically take years for comparable federal prison projects. Trader consensus at 93 percent against reflects these structural barriers and the absence of concrete progress toward completion within the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,152
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s May 2025 directive and April 2026 request for $152 million in the fiscal 2027 budget to rebuild Alcatraz as a federal prison have kept the proposal under active evaluation by the Bureau of Prisons, yet Congress has not approved funding and the project faces steep logistical, environmental, and local political hurdles. The site remains a National Park Service tourist destination with no water, sewage, or modern infrastructure suitable for a maximum-security facility, and San Francisco officials have publicly dismissed the plan as unrealistic. Full restoration and operational reopening by the end of 2026 would require congressional appropriations, extensive construction, and resolution of legal and permitting challenges that historically take years for comparable federal prison projects. Trader consensus at 93 percent against reflects these structural barriers and the absence of concrete progress toward completion within the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,152
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?"是 Polymarket 上的一个预测市场,交易者根据自己对事件是否会发生的判断买卖"是"或"否"的份额。当前社区预测的概率为 8%("Yes")。例如,如果"是"的价格为 8¢,则市场集体认为该事件发生的概率为 8%。这些赔率会随着交易者对新动态和信息的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Apr 8, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?"上交易,只需选择你认为答案是"是"还是"否"。每一方都有一个反映市场隐含概率的当前价格。输入你的金额并点击"交易"。如果你买入"是"的份额且结果为"是",每份支付 $1。如果结果为"否",你的"是"份额支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额以锁定利润或止损。

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?"的当前概率为 8%("Yes")。这意味着 Polymarket 社区目前认为该事件发生的概率为 8%。这些赔率基于实际交易实时更新,持续提供市场预期信号。

"Alcatraz reopened in 2026?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。