Trader consensus against Alcatraz reopening as a federal prison by the end of 2026 stems primarily from the absence of congressional funding or authorizing legislation for the proposal first advanced in 2025. The $152 million request in the administration’s fiscal year 2027 budget remains a non-binding suggestion with no appropriations enacted or bills introduced to transfer the island from National Park Service management. Engineering assessments and feasibility work continue at a preliminary stage, while the site requires extensive infrastructure upgrades for water, sewage, and security that exceed the proposed initial outlay. Temporary dock repairs scheduled through November 2026 further underscore ongoing visitor operations. Late-session budget passage or executive redirection could theoretically alter timelines, though both face significant procedural and fiscal hurdles before year-end.