Persistent low auction results for AI-generated artwork underpin the 94.9% market-implied odds against a $10 million sale at a major house in 2026. Verified records remain anchored near $1.08 million for Ai-Da’s 2024 Sotheby’s piece, with Christie’s dedicated 2025 Augmented Intelligence sale totaling just $729,000 and its top lot at $277,000. Collector resistance, debates over training data provenance, and questions about authorship—echoed by critics like Ted Chiang—have limited demand growth despite advances in generative models. A credible high-profile endorsement, viral capability leap, or institutional acquisition could still shift sentiment before year-end.