PAN holds the lead in the Aguascalientes state congress race at 52.5% implied probability, ahead of Morena at 26.5% and smaller parties clustered near even odds, reflecting the party's control of the governorship and consistent polling advantages of 10-17 points over Morena in recent state surveys. The electoral process formally opened in early October 2026 for the June 2027 vote that will renew the legislature alongside the governorship and municipalities. Trader positioning tracks PAN's organizational edge and efforts to build opposition alliances, while Morena's coordination around figures such as Nora Ruvalcaba and internal party identification numbers near 40% keep the contest competitive. Early candidate selection, coalition agreements, and any shifts in legislative polling could widen or narrow the gap before nominations solidify.