Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in September 2026, including control of Mokha, Perim Island, and the Hanish islands, have heightened risks at the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint without producing a full shutdown. Daily ship transits, tracked via IMF PortWatch arrivals of containers, tankers, and bulk carriers, remain in the low-to-mid 20s on recent days—well below pre-2024 norms near 50 but far from zero—supported by continued tanker movements and selective container-line returns to Suez routing. This dynamic sustains elevated freight rates, war-risk premiums, and Cape of Good Hope diversions that add roughly 10–14 days and $900,000–$1 million per voyage, while keeping Brent crude near $104–105 per barrel amid supply-chain pressures. Trader consensus on low probabilities of a zero-transit day reflects these economic incentives and partial service resumption rather than complete avoidance. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing conflict developments and weekly PortWatch releases that could shift implied odds if traffic drops sharply.