France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於France 36.0%
Argentina 18.4%
Spain 10.1%
England 8.5%
$3,655,809,772 交易量
$3,655,809,772 交易量
France
36%
Argentina
18%
Spain
10%
England
9%
Brazil
7%
Portugal
5%
USA
3%
Mexico
3%
Colombia
3%
Morocco
2%
Norway
2%
Belgium
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Canada
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Australia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
France 36.0%
Argentina 18.4%
Spain 10.1%
England 8.5%
$3,655,809,772 交易量
$3,655,809,772 交易量
France
36%
Argentina
18%
Spain
10%
England
9%
Brazil
7%
Portugal
5%
USA
3%
Mexico
3%
Colombia
3%
Morocco
2%
Norway
2%
Belgium
1%
Switzerland
1%
Senegal
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Canada
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Australia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 18.4% implied probability after opening with a 3-1 victory over Senegal featuring multiple goals from Kylian Mbappé, while Spain sits at 13.8% following a surprising 0-0 draw against Cape Verde that tempered expectations from its Euro 2024-winning squad. England (12.8%) and defending champion Argentina (11.6%) remain tightly clustered behind them after strong early results, including England’s 4-2 win over Croatia and Argentina’s emphatic performances. The bunched pricing among the top five reflects the expanded 48-team format, comparable squad depth and star power across elite European sides, and limited separation in group-stage results so far. Portugal, Brazil, and Germany trail but stay within striking distance as traders weigh recent form, injuries, and knockout-stage matchups that remain weeks away.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions