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Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?

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Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?

Established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, a special legislative process called “reconciliation” allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt-limit legislation. In the Senate, reconciliation bills aren’t subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process in a vote that concludes within this market's timeframe. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This market's timeframe spans from June 23, 2022 (12 PM ET) to August 15, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, a special legislative process called “reconciliation” allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt-limit legislation. In the Senate, reconciliation bills aren’t subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process in a vote that concludes within this market's timeframe. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This market's timeframe spans from June 23, 2022 (12 PM ET) to August 15, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?" has generated $47.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 23, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.