The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, including leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and retention of core security apparatus control, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against regime change by September 30. Ongoing internal factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a renewed campaign of executions and protest suppression have not produced the coordinated defections or nationwide mobilization needed for rapid collapse within the brief window. Diplomatic efforts to ease Hormuz restrictions and manage post-ceasefire frictions further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden escalations in domestic unrest, unexpected elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically accelerate shifts, historical patterns of regime adaptation and current force posture make such outcomes improbable before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$1,618,541 交易量
$1,618,541 交易量
2026-09-30
是
2% 機率
$1,618,541 交易量
$1,618,541 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, including leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and retention of core security apparatus control, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against regime change by September 30. Ongoing internal factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a renewed campaign of executions and protest suppression have not produced the coordinated defections or nationwide mobilization needed for rapid collapse within the brief window. Diplomatic efforts to ease Hormuz restrictions and manage post-ceasefire frictions further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden escalations in domestic unrest, unexpected elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically accelerate shifts, historical patterns of regime adaptation and current force posture make such outcomes improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$1,618,541結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, including leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and retention of core security apparatus control, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against regime change by September 30. Ongoing internal factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a renewed campaign of executions and protest suppression have not produced the coordinated defections or nationwide mobilization needed for rapid collapse within the brief window. Diplomatic efforts to ease Hormuz restrictions and manage post-ceasefire frictions further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden escalations in domestic unrest, unexpected elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically accelerate shifts, historical patterns of regime adaptation and current force posture make such outcomes improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,618,541結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, including leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei and retention of core security apparatus control, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against regime change by September 30. Ongoing internal factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and a renewed campaign of executions and protest suppression have not produced the coordinated defections or nationwide mobilization needed for rapid collapse within the brief window. Diplomatic efforts to ease Hormuz restrictions and manage post-ceasefire frictions further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. While sudden escalations in domestic unrest, unexpected elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically accelerate shifts, historical patterns of regime adaptation and current force posture make such outcomes improbable before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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