Russia faces sustained manpower demands in its Ukraine campaign due to high casualties and slowing contract recruitment, prompting preparations such as an expanded electronic military registry, regional drills, and a September 28 decree raising authorized armed forces strength by 15,500 personnel. Officials including President Putin have repeatedly denied plans for a new public forced mobilization wave similar to 2022, instead emphasizing regular year-round conscription and volunteer incentives. The autumn draft of roughly 120,000 conscripts began sending recruits to units on October 10, with official assurances they will not deploy to combat zones. Ukrainian assessments point to shadow recruitment and potential for larger involuntary call-ups, while the 2022 partial mobilization decree remains legally in effect. Trader views on an imminent announcement hinge on whether battlefield needs or domestic political costs shift Kremlin strategy in coming weeks.